The one constituency that matters

One question that we’re repeatedly asked at Gramener is “Who’ll win the election?” While we’re not going to answer that outright, here’s something we uncovered during this quest.

We were looking for a constituency that votes for the nation’s winning party, i.e. the party that had the largest number of seats. (In India, this has also always been the party that has been in power.) Except for 1977 when the Janata Party won, and 1996, 1998 and 1999 when BJP won, this has always been the Congress.

It turns out that there is one party that votes in exactly the same way – Faridabad, in Haryana. The party that won Faridabad, since its inception in 1977, has always gone on to win the elections.

So here’s our answer to the question who’ll win the election: “Pay close attention to who wins Faridabad.”

Constituency win history

Since 1996, there have been only 6 other constituencies that have voted for the national winner, as shown above. Mumbai North, since it’s inception in 1996, have voted consistently for the party that won the National elections. East Delhi has always voted for the winner except in 1991, when they voted for BJP.

While this is not meant to be taken seriously — if you look hard enough, you’ll find a constituency that matches almost any pattern you want. — we’ll definitely be keeping a close eye on the polls in these constituencies.

One thought on “The one constituency that matters”

  1. I was also trying to figure out who will win this election.

    What I will say is Congress will not come into power for they had made a lot of corruption and if we checkout 2004, 2009 elections people tried Congress again giving the best result, and they destroyed.

    Now if AAP was ruling in Delhi then the BJP would have come to force in central. But due to the game play against creating a law both the BJP and Congress are not different. So the chances of BJP to get more votes has been decreased.

    Many small parties will gain from this election, and yes we will need to wait and see to get a clear picture .

    Thank you for the information.

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