One question that we’re repeatedly asked at Gramener is “Who’ll win the election?” While we’re not going to answer that outright, here’s something we uncovered during this quest.
We were looking for a constituency that votes for the nation’s winning party, i.e. the party that had the largest number of seats. (In India, this has also always been the party that has been in power.) Except for 1977 when the Janata Party won, and 1996, 1998 and 1999 when BJP won, this has always been the Congress.
It turns out that there is one party that votes in exactly the same way – Faridabad, in Haryana. The party that won Faridabad, since its inception in 1977, has always gone on to win the elections.
So here’s our answer to the question who’ll win the election: “Pay close attention to who wins Faridabad.”
Since 1996, there have been only 6 other constituencies that have voted for the national winner, as shown above. Mumbai North, since it’s inception in 1996, have voted consistently for the party that won the National elections. East Delhi has always voted for the winner except in 1991, when they voted for BJP.
While this is not meant to be taken seriously — if you look hard enough, you’ll find a constituency that matches almost any pattern you want. — we’ll definitely be keeping a close eye on the polls in these constituencies.