The one constituency that matters

One ques­tion that we’re re­peatedly asked at Gramener is “Who’ll win the elec­tion?” While we’re not go­ing to an­swer that out­right, here’s some­thing we un­covered dur­ing this quest.

We were look­ing for a con­stitu­ency that votes for the nation’s win­ning party, i.e. the party that had the largest num­ber of seats. (In India, this has also al­ways been the party that has been in power.) Except for 1977 when the Janata Party won, and 1996, 1998 and 1999 when BJP won, this has al­ways been the Congress.

It turns out that there is one party that votes in ex­actly the same way – Faridabad, in Haryana. The party that won Faridabad, since its in­cep­tion in 1977, has al­ways gone on to win the elec­tions.

So here’s our an­swer to the ques­tion who’ll win the elec­tion: “Pay close at­ten­tion to who wins Faridabad.”

Constituency win history

Since 1996, there have been only 6 oth­er con­stitu­en­cies that have voted for the na­tion­al win­ner, as shown above. Mumbai North, since it’s in­cep­tion in 1996, have voted con­sist­ently for the party that won the National elec­tions. East Delhi has al­ways voted for the win­ner ex­cept in 1991, when they voted for BJP.

While this is not meant to be taken ser­i­ously — if you look hard enough, you’ll find a con­stitu­ency that matches al­most any pat­tern you want. — we’ll def­in­itely be keep­ing a close eye on the polls in these con­stitu­en­cies.

One thought on “The one constituency that matters”

  1. I was also try­ing to fig­ure out who will win this elec­tion.

    What I will say is Congress will not come in­to power for they had made a lot of cor­rup­tion and if we check­out 2004, 2009 elec­tions people tried Congress again giv­ing the be­st res­ult, and they des­troyed.

    Now if AAP was rul­ing in Delhi then the BJP would have come to for­ce in cent­ral. But due to the game play again­st cre­at­ing a law both the BJP and Congress are not dif­fer­ent. So the chances of BJP to get more votes has been de­creased.

    Many small parties will gain from this elec­tion, and yes we will need to wait and see to get a clear pic­ture .

    Thank you for the in­form­a­tion.

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