Visualising India’s budget history

As we await the Indian Government’s budget tomorrow, here are some visualisations we created to examine the history of our past budgets.

Working with The Economic Times, we created a view of how the budget breakup has changed by ministry over time.

Sectoral trends

The large pink region is the Economic Affairs ministry, which takes up the bulk of the spend. Though it has been growing in absolute terms, in relative terms, it has been shrinking in importance. You can see the break-up by plan and non-plan breakups at our ET Ministry-wise Budget Allocation page.

Sectoral trends - PlanSectoral trends - Non-plan

In absolute terms, through, the spend on every sector has been growing smoothly and steadily, barring a few kinks. Among these, the agricultural spending is notable. It spurted up in 2009 to Rs 77 cr, but no subsequent budget has spent as much on agriculture.

Sectoral trends - Total

One other change that has happened is the relative rationalisation of budgets between 2002 and 2014. While in 2002 (left), the budget was relatively more concentrated among a few departments such as Economic Affairs, Defence, etc, by 2014, this disparity has reduced marginally.

Sectoral breakup 2001-2002 Sectoral breakup 2013-2014

But how do markets react to the budget?

One way of capturing this information is to look at how the market capitalisation of companies has moved on the day of the budget. For example, on the day of the 2007 budget, every single sector’s market capitalisation fell, with the sole exception of Tobacco. The exact same thing happened on the day of the 2009 budget as well.

Market movement 2007 Market movement 2009

But on the day of the 2010 budget, there was a perfect reversal of the situation. Every sector except Tobacco improved, while Tobacco (in a rare turn of events), lost considerable value.

Market movement 2010

In fact, the Tobacco sector is primarily just a single company – ITC, and its fate often moves counter-cyclically on budget days. But budgets are generally good for ITC. In the last 11 budgets, ITC (and Tobacco) has grown except in 2010. On the other hand, the Media and Entertainment industry typically suffers setbacks on budget day. Barring 2010 and 2011, the market cap of this segment has shrunk on every single budget day in the last 11 years.

Market movement history

For more insights and to explore the history of the Indian Budgets, please visit our site on The Economic Times and on Gramener.com.

Mexico–the ghosts of the round of 16

Until the 87th minute of their Round of 16 game against the Netherlands, Mexico looked like they had finally laid to rest ‘the Ghosts of the Round of 16’, but Wesley Sneijder’s 88th minute equalizer and Klaas Jan Huntelaar’s injury-time match-winning penalty meant that it was deja vu time again!

Mexico-ghosts

Mexico’s loss to the Netherlands is their 6th successive ‘Round of 16’ defeat. Argentina has denied them twice in successive world cups (2006 and 2010).

At this rate, it looks like Mexico will have to bid for the 2026 World Cup if they’d like to get their ‘Round of 16’ history straightened out. They last won a ‘Round of 16’ match in 1986 when the World Cup was held in Mexico!

Gramener @ Open Data Camp Hyderabad.

Gramener will be sharing it’s experience on how it helped audience of Television and Print media consume the big data of Indian Elections at this one day unconference on 28th June 2014 held at ISB in association with SRITNE and DataMeet group, which brings together  technologists, students, entrepreneurs and organisations who use data.

Ganes Kesari and Sravan Kumar of  Gramener will be presenting  - Visual Insights of the World’s largest Democracy ( 1951 to 2014 ).

And there is a presentation on “Exploratory analysis of Indian election data” by Pratap Vardhan of Gramener.

Check : http://www.isb.edu/events/industry-events/open-data-camp-2014