Donald Trump’s standing in Senate Elections 2018

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The Americans will head to the polls on November 6 to elect members for 35 out of the 100 Senate seats. There are 24 Democratic seats, 9 Republican seats, and 2 seats held by independents up for Senate elections 2018; hence, the partisan risk for the Republican Party is low.
46% of the US population across states have a positive image of President Trump, while 50% have an unfavorable opinion of him, according to the survey done by Morning Consult (Aug’18).

President Trump is less popular now, during Senate Elections 2018, than he used to be at the start of his term

Net Approval Rating – Jan’17

He had a net positive approval rating in 44 states at the start of his term in Jan’17 and in Aug’18 it reduced to 24.

Net Approval Rating – Aug’18

Analysis of approval data of the Trump presidency reveals that; the President’s approval rating has closely followed the same pattern to the generic ballot poll question nationwide.

With a decrease in disapproval score, favorability of Republican party witnessed an increase

The generic ballot has Democrats up by almost 7 points, also in last three midterm senate elections, the president’s party has lost six Senate seats in total which makes this election more interesting. Even in Texas, where a Democrat has not been elected to a Senate seat since 1988, is witnessing an unusually contentious Senate race with Trump’s net approval of 5% (decline of 15 points vs. Jan’17).

However, there are states that love Trump & it is very clear from their approval ratings:

West Virginia
Trump won west Virginia in 2016, with the highest margin in the country. His approval rating is still 64 percent second highest of any state, per morning consult (Aug’18)and 32% disapproval.

Tennessee
A comfortable Trump territory, the president has 58 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval.

Wyoming
The president has 65 percent approval which is highest in the nation and 31 percent disapproval.

Mississippi
With 61% approval & 35% disapproval state clears its support to Trump.

Utah, Arizona, Nebraska, Montana & Florida are the states, which were won by President Trump in 2016 & have witnessed the maximum decline in net-approval scores (Decline > 20 points).

Prediction on the basis of Approval ratings & 2016 election’s result

Democratic Win: States with low net approval & President Trump Lost 2016’s election
Toss with Democratic lean: States with high but adverse net approval & President Trump Lost 2016’s election
Republic Win: States with high & positive net approval & President Trump won 2016’s election
Toss with Republican lean: States with low & positive net approval & President Trump won 2016’s election
Highly Competitive: States with low & negative net approval & President Trump won 2016’s election

Finally, it would be interesting to see if popularity translates to votes at the ballot on November 6, 2018.

Note: This post is researched, written and presented by Ayushi Mishra, Data Consultant at Gramener.

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