Winnability in non-reserved seats

In our last post, we have seen the ex­tent to which parties give tick­ets to SC/ST can­did­ates in non-reserved con­stitu­en­cies. In this post, we will com­pare the per­form­ance of SC/ST can­did­ates with their gen­er­al coun­ter­parts.

Here, we define re­l­at­ive win­nab­il­ity as the ra­tio of win% of group and total win%. That is, how much more of­ten does a group win com­pared to the av­er­age.

Winnability in non-reserved seats

At the na­tion­al level, re­l­at­ive win­nab­il­ity of ST can­did­ates is more than SC can­did­ate. Yet, ST can­did­ates are given less seats in non-reserved seats.

Part-wise re­l­at­ive win­nab­il­ity of gen­er­al, SC, ST can­did­ate at non-reserved seats are:

Winnability by Party

Overall, most parties have higher gen­er­al can­did­ate win­nab­il­ity in non-reserved con­stitu­en­cies. BSP and LJP in­curred heavy losses at places where it fielded SC/ST can­did­ates. There seems to be a dir­ect cor­rel­a­tion between losses in­curred by a party which gave higher share of seats to SC can­did­ates. For ex­ample, BSP and LJP were highly in­clined to give gen­er­al seats to SC can­did­ate and lost most of these seats.

In these ana­lys­is, we came across some in­ter­est­ing cases like:

  • SP lost all the gen­er­al seats where it fielded a SC can­did­ate and won only one gen­er­al seat where it fielded ST can­did­ate.
  • CPM, CPI, JD(U) lost all the gen­er­al seats where it fielded a ST can­did­ate.
  • Though LJP fields many SC/ST can­did­ates in gen­er­al seats, it didn’t win any of these seats.

There are quite few main­stream parties which give non-reserved seats to SC/ST can­did­ates. It’s an­other story how the gen­er­al pub­lic have voted in re­served seats. We shall take that it in an­other series.

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